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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
4/26/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 2Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona60%
×Draw21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
2.09
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.08

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 94% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
81%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
79%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
40%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
37%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
88%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
62%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
34%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
66%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
29%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
76%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.09

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
60%
level
21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
19%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Sektzia Nes Tziona and Ihud Bnei Shfaram drew 2-2 in Liga Leumit on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.