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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
2/2/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 19Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona38%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Ramat Gan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.25
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.30

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.12

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
65%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Hapoel Ramat Gan
73%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
62%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
17%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
71%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
36%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
52%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.30 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
38%
level
27%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
35%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Sektzia Nes Tziona 2–0 Hapoel Ramat Gan

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.