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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Hapoel Acre — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
9/21/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 5Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona42%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Acre30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.31
Hapoel Acre
1.06

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Hapoel Acre
1.07

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Hapoel Acre
1.23

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Hapoel Acre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
70%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Hapoel Acre
72%
Draw or Hapoel Acre
58%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
73%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
38%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
14%
Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
65%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
29%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
58%
Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
42%
level
28%
Hapoel Acre scores more
30%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Sektzia Nes Tziona 1–0 Hapoel Acre

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Hapoel Acre 1-0 in Liga Leumit on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.