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Sekirovo Rakovski vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
FT
1 – 1
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
4/26/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 31Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski47%
×Draw25%
Yambol 191528%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.60
Yambol 1915
1.18

Sekirovo Rakovski creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 118 away

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.55
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.27
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw
72%
Sekirovo Rakovski or Yambol 1915
75%
Draw or Yambol 1915
53%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
24%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
80%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
47%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
22%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
69%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
33%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
63%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
47%
level
25%
Yambol 1915 scores more
28%

Sekirovo Rakovski at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sekirovo Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sekirovo Rakovski vs Yambol 1915

Sekirovo Rakovski and Yambol 1915 drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Peter Parchevich in Rakovski.