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Sekirovo Rakovski vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
FT
1 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
5/14/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 35Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski46%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.60
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.21

Sekirovo Rakovski creates 32% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.55
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.27
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw
71%
Sekirovo Rakovski or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
54%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
80%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
47%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
62%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
46%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
29%

Sekirovo Rakovski at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sekirovo Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sekirovo Rakovski vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Sekirovo Rakovski and Lokomotiv Plovdiv II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Peter Parchevich in Rakovski.