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Sekhukhune United vs Amazulu — Premier Soccer League 2018

Sekhukhune United
Sekhukhune United
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Amazulu
Amazulu
2/19/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Old Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sekhukhune United42%
×Draw31%
Amazulu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekhukhune United
1.11
Amazulu
0.82

Sekhukhune United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sekhukhune United
1.07
Amazulu
0.84

allows per match

Sekhukhune United
0.81
Amazulu
1.16

finishing

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par
Amazulu+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekhukhune United ↓

Amazulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sekhukhune United or draw
73%
Sekhukhune United or Amazulu
69%
Draw or Amazulu
58%

Winning margin

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+
17%
Amazulu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals
67%
Sekhukhune United 2+ goals
30%
Sekhukhune United 3+ goals
10%
Amazulu 1+ goals
56%
Amazulu 2+ goals
20%
Amazulu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)
61%
Amazulu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekhukhune United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Amazulu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekhukhune United attack 1.07 + Amazulu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Amazulu attack 0.84 + Sekhukhune United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sekhukhune United scores more
42%
level
31%
Amazulu scores more
27%

Sekhukhune United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sekhukhune United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Sekhukhune United 4–2 Amazulu

Sekhukhune United beat Amazulu 4-2 in Premier Soccer League on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.