Sejong SA 2–2 Pyeongtaek Citizen: Result & Stats

Sejong SA

FT

2 – 2

Pyeongtaek Citizen

5/10/2026

K4 League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sejong SA51%

×Draw23%

Pyeongtaek Citizen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sejong SAExpected goals in this matchPyeongtaek Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.27

Sejong SA

1.85

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.27

Sejong SA creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.88

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sejong SA

1.88

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.17

allows per match

Sejong SA

1.38

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sejong SA+0.00on par

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sejong SA ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sejong SA or draw

74%

Sejong SA or Pyeongtaek Citizen

77%

Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen

49%

Winning margin

Sejong SA wins by 2+

28%

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sejong SA 1+ goals

84%

Sejong SA 2+ goals

55%

Sejong SA 3+ goals

28%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals

72%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals

36%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sejong SA (draw refunded)

66%

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sejong SA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sejong SA attack 1.88 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Sejong SA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sejong SA scores more

51%

level

23%

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more

26%

Sejong SA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sejong SA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff