Sejong SA 1–3 Pyeongchang United: Result & Stats

Sejong SA

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pyeongchang United

6/28/2026

K4 League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sejong SA48%

×Draw23%

Pyeongchang United29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sejong SAExpected goals in this matchPyeongchang United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.31

Sejong SA

1.75

Pyeongchang United

1.31

Sejong SA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.88

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sejong SA

1.88

Pyeongchang United

1.25

allows per match

Sejong SA

1.38

Pyeongchang United

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sejong SA+0.00on par

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sejong SA ↓

Pyeongchang United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sejong SA or draw

71%

Sejong SA or Pyeongchang United

77%

Draw or Pyeongchang United

52%

Winning margin

Sejong SA wins by 2+

26%

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sejong SA 1+ goals

83%

Sejong SA 2+ goals

52%

Sejong SA 3+ goals

25%

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals

73%

Pyeongchang United 2+ goals

38%

Pyeongchang United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sejong SA (draw refunded)

62%

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sejong SA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Pyeongchang United away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sejong SA attack 1.88 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Sejong SA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sejong SA scores more

48%

level

23%

Pyeongchang United scores more

29%

Sejong SA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sejong SA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff