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Sejong SA vs Jinju Citizen — K4 League 2026

Sejong SA
Sejong SA
Preview
10:00
Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
9/12/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 22
55%
Jinju Citizen
model favours
24%22%55%
1–2
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sejong SA24%
×Draw22%
Jinju Citizen55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sejong SA
1.27
Jinju Citizen
2.02

Jinju Citizen creates 59% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sejong SA
1.88
Jinju Citizen
2.67

allows per match

Sejong SA
1.38
Jinju Citizen
0.67

finishing

Sejong SA+0.00on par
Jinju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sejong SA ↓

Jinju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sejong SA or draw
45%
Sejong SA or Jinju Citizen
78%
Draw or Jinju Citizen
76%

Winning margin

Sejong SA wins by 2+
10%
Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sejong SA 1+ goals
72%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
36%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
14%
Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
87%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
60%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sejong SA (draw refunded)
30%
Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sejong SA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Jinju Citizen away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sejong SA attack 1.88 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jinju Citizen attack 2.67 + Sejong SA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sejong SA scores more
24%
level
22%
Jinju Citizen scores more
55%

Jinju Citizen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
SA
WDLWW
Citizen
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sejong SA face Jinju Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Sejong SA hosting Jinju Citizen. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.