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Jinju Citizen vs Sejong SA — K4 League 2026

Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
FT
4 – 0
Sejong SA
Sejong SA
5/3/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jinju Citizen63%
×Draw20%
Sejong SA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinju Citizen
2.15
Sejong SA
1.01

Jinju Citizen creates 113% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jinju Citizen
2.44
Sejong SA
1.14

allows per match

Jinju Citizen
0.89
Sejong SA
1.86

finishing

Jinju Citizen+0.00on par
Sejong SA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinju Citizen ↓

Sejong SA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jinju Citizen or draw
83%
Jinju Citizen or Sejong SA
80%
Draw or Sejong SA
37%

Winning margin

Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
40%
Sejong SA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
88%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
63%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
36%
Sejong SA 1+ goals
64%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
27%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
79%
Sejong SA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinju Citizen at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Sejong SA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinju Citizen attack 2.44 + Sejong SA defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sejong SA attack 1.14 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jinju Citizen scores more
63%
level
20%
Sejong SA scores more
17%

Jinju Citizen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Jinju Citizen 4–0 Sejong SA

Jinju Citizen beat Sejong SA 4-0 in K4 League on May 3, 2026.