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Sejong SA vs Gijang United — K4 League 2026

Sejong SA
Sejong SA
Preview
05:00
Gijang United
Gijang United
10/10/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 24
56%
Sejong SA
model favours
56%22%22%
1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sejong SA56%
×Draw22%
Gijang United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sejong SA
1.94
Gijang United
1.14

Sejong SA creates 70% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sejong SA
1.88
Gijang United
0.89

allows per match

Sejong SA
1.38
Gijang United
2.00

finishing

Sejong SA+0.00on par
Gijang United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sejong SA ↓

Gijang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sejong SA or draw
78%
Sejong SA or Gijang United
78%
Draw or Gijang United
44%

Winning margin

Sejong SA wins by 2+
33%
Gijang United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sejong SA 1+ goals
86%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
58%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
30%
Gijang United 1+ goals
68%
Gijang United 2+ goals
32%
Gijang United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sejong SA (draw refunded)
72%
Gijang United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sejong SA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Gijang United away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sejong SA attack 1.88 + Gijang United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gijang United attack 0.89 + Sejong SA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sejong SA scores more
56%
level
22%
Gijang United scores more
22%

Sejong SA at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sejong SA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
SA
WDLWW
United
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sejong SA face Gijang United (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Sejong SA hosting Gijang United. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.