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Gijang United vs Sejong SA — K4 League 2026

Gijang United
Gijang United
FT
1 – 0
Sejong SA
Sejong SA
5/17/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gijang United46%
×Draw24%
Sejong SA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijang United
1.72
Sejong SA
1.35

Gijang United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gijang United
1.57
Sejong SA
1.14

allows per match

Gijang United
1.57
Sejong SA
1.86

finishing

Gijang United+0.00on par
Sejong SA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijang United ↓

Sejong SA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gijang United or draw
70%
Gijang United or Sejong SA
76%
Draw or Sejong SA
54%

Winning margin

Gijang United wins by 2+
24%
Sejong SA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gijang United 1+ goals
82%
Gijang United 2+ goals
51%
Gijang United 3+ goals
25%
Sejong SA 1+ goals
74%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
39%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gijang United (draw refunded)
60%
Sejong SA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijang United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Sejong SA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijang United attack 1.57 + Sejong SA defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sejong SA attack 1.14 + Gijang United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gijang United scores more
46%
level
24%
Sejong SA scores more
30%

Gijang United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gijang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gijang United vs Sejong SA

Gijang United beat Sejong SA 1-0 in K4 League on May 17, 2026.