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Sejong SA vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Sejong SA
Sejong SA
FT
3 – 2
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
5/23/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sejong SA39%
×Draw23%
Geumsan Insam38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sejong SA
1.66
Geumsan Insam
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sejong SA
1.88
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Sejong SA
1.38
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Sejong SA+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sejong SA ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sejong SA or draw
62%
Sejong SA or Geumsan Insam
77%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
61%

Winning margin

Sejong SA wins by 2+
20%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sejong SA 1+ goals
81%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
49%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
23%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
80%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
48%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sejong SA (draw refunded)
51%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sejong SA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sejong SA attack 1.88 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.66

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Sejong SA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sejong SA scores more
39%
level
23%
Geumsan Insam scores more
38%

Sejong SA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sejong SA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Sejong SA 3–2 Geumsan Insam

Sejong SA beat Geumsan Insam 3-2 in K4 League on May 23, 2026.