Segesta Sisak 4–0 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

Segesta Sisak

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jadran Poreč

V. Simic 77'

L. Ivancic 70'

T. Kukoc 31'

J. Rendulic 1'

9/14/2024

Second NL · Round 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Segesta Sisak64%

×Draw18%

Jadran Poreč18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Segesta SisakExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.25

Segesta Sisak

2.51

Jadran Poreč

1.25

Segesta Sisak creates 101% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

2.30

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Segesta Sisak

2.30

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Segesta Sisak

1.50

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Segesta Sisak+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Segesta Sisak ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Segesta Sisak or draw

82%

Segesta Sisak or Jadran Poreč

82%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

36%

Winning margin

Segesta Sisak wins by 2+

43%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Segesta Sisak 1+ goals

92%

Segesta Sisak 2+ goals

71%

Segesta Sisak 3+ goals

45%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

71%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

36%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Segesta Sisak (draw refunded)

79%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Segesta Sisak at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Segesta Sisak attack 2.30 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.51

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Segesta Sisak defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Segesta Sisak scores more

64%

level

18%

Jadran Poreč scores more

18%

Segesta Sisak at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Segesta Sisak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

J. Rendulic

31'

T. Kukoc

34'

F. Sverko

34'

F. Sverko

70'

L. Ivancic

77'

V. Simic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff