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Sefwi All Stars vs Ebony FC — Division One League 2025

Sefwi All Stars
Sefwi All Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ebony FC
Ebony FC
1/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sefwi All Stars54%
×Draw26%
Ebony FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sefwi All Stars
1.56
Ebony FC
0.87

Sefwi All Stars creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sefwi All Stars
1.60
Ebony FC
1.07

allows per match

Sefwi All Stars
0.67
Ebony FC
1.53

finishing

Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par
Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sefwi All Stars ↓

Ebony FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sefwi All Stars or draw
79%
Sefwi All Stars or Ebony FC
74%
Draw or Ebony FC
46%

Winning margin

Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+
28%
Ebony FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals
79%
Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals
46%
Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals
21%
Ebony FC 1+ goals
58%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
22%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)
72%
Ebony FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sefwi All Stars at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sefwi All Stars attack 1.60 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + Sefwi All Stars defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sefwi All Stars scores more
54%
level
26%
Ebony FC scores more
21%

Sefwi All Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sefwi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sefwi All Stars 1 – 0 Ebony FC

Sefwi All Stars beat Ebony FC 1-0 in Division One League on January 25, 2026.