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Seekirchen vs Union Henndorf — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Seekirchen
Seekirchen
FT
6 – 0
Union Henndorf
Union Henndorf
11/3/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 15Sportzentrum Seekirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Seekirchen80%
×Draw12%
Union Henndorf9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seekirchen
3.35
Union Henndorf
1.06

Seekirchen creates 216% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Seekirchen
3.83
Union Henndorf
1.33

allows per match

Seekirchen
0.80
Union Henndorf
2.87

finishing

Seekirchen+0.00on par
Union Henndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seekirchen ↓

Union Henndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Seekirchen or draw
91%
Seekirchen or Union Henndorf
88%
Draw or Union Henndorf
20%

Winning margin

Seekirchen wins by 2+
61%
Union Henndorf wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Seekirchen 1+ goals
96%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
84%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
63%
Union Henndorf 1+ goals
65%
Union Henndorf 2+ goals
29%
Union Henndorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Seekirchen (draw refunded)
90%
Union Henndorf (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seekirchen at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Union Henndorf away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seekirchen attack 3.83 + Union Henndorf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 3.35

Union Henndorf attack 1.33 + Seekirchen defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Seekirchen scores more
80%
level
12%
Union Henndorf scores more
9%

Seekirchen at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Seekirchen 6–0 Union Henndorf

Seekirchen beat Union Henndorf 6-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Seekirchen in Seekirchen am Wallersee.