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Seekirchen vs Siezenheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Seekirchen
Seekirchen
FT
3 – 0
Siezenheim
Siezenheim
8/16/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 3Sportzentrum Seekirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Seekirchen72%
×Draw15%
Siezenheim13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seekirchen
2.97
Siezenheim
1.20

Seekirchen creates 148% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Seekirchen
3.83
Siezenheim
1.59

allows per match

Seekirchen
0.80
Siezenheim
2.11

finishing

Seekirchen+0.00on par
Siezenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seekirchen ↓

Siezenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Seekirchen or draw
87%
Seekirchen or Siezenheim
85%
Draw or Siezenheim
28%

Winning margin

Seekirchen wins by 2+
52%
Siezenheim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Seekirchen 1+ goals
95%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
79%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
56%
Siezenheim 1+ goals
70%
Siezenheim 2+ goals
34%
Siezenheim 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Seekirchen (draw refunded)
85%
Siezenheim (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seekirchen at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Siezenheim away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seekirchen attack 3.83 + Siezenheim defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.97

Siezenheim attack 1.59 + Seekirchen defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Seekirchen scores more
72%
level
15%
Siezenheim scores more
13%

Seekirchen at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seekirchen vs Siezenheim

Seekirchen beat Siezenheim 3-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Seekirchen in Seekirchen am Wallersee.