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Seekirchen vs Langenegg — Regionalliga - West 2018

Seekirchen
Seekirchen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Langenegg
Langenegg
3/23/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 18Sportzentrum Seekirchen (Seekirchen am Wallersee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Seekirchen65%
×Draw17%
Langenegg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seekirchen
2.81
Langenegg
1.45

Seekirchen creates 94% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

creates per match

Seekirchen
2.59
Langenegg
1.46

allows per match

Seekirchen
1.44
Langenegg
3.04

finishing

Seekirchen+0.00on par
Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seekirchen ↓

Langenegg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Seekirchen or draw
82%
Seekirchen or Langenegg
83%
Draw or Langenegg
35%

Winning margin

Seekirchen wins by 2+
45%
Langenegg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Seekirchen 1+ goals
94%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
76%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
52%
Langenegg 1+ goals
77%
Langenegg 2+ goals
42%
Langenegg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Seekirchen (draw refunded)
78%
Langenegg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seekirchen at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seekirchen attack 2.59 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.81

Langenegg attack 1.46 + Seekirchen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Seekirchen scores more
65%
level
17%
Langenegg scores more
18%

Seekirchen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Seekirchen 2–0 Langenegg

Seekirchen beat Langenegg 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Seekirchen (Seekirchen am Wallersee).