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Sedan vs Paris FC — Coupe de France 2018

Sedan
Sedan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Paris FC
Paris FC
11/14/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Louis-Dugauguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sedan42%
×Draw25%
Paris FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sedan
1.53
Paris FC
1.34

Sedan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sedan
2.25
Paris FC
1.69

allows per match

Sedan
1.00
Paris FC
0.81

finishing

Sedan+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sedan ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sedan or draw
67%
Sedan or Paris FC
75%
Draw or Paris FC
58%

Winning margin

Sedan wins by 2+
21%
Paris FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sedan 1+ goals
78%
Sedan 2+ goals
45%
Sedan 3+ goals
20%
Paris FC 1+ goals
74%
Paris FC 2+ goals
39%
Paris FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sedan (draw refunded)
56%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sedan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sedan attack 2.25 + Paris FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.53

Paris FC attack 1.69 + Sedan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sedan scores more
42%
level
25%
Paris FC scores more
33%

Sedan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Sedan 2–2 Paris FC

Sedan and Paris FC drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Louis-Dugauguez in Sedan.