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Sedan vs Epinal — Coupe de France 2018

Sedan
Sedan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Epinal
Epinal
2/6/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Louis-Dugauguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sedan44%
×Draw24%
Epinal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sedan
1.63
Epinal
1.33

Sedan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sedan
2.25
Epinal
1.67

allows per match

Sedan
1.00
Epinal
1.00

finishing

Sedan+0.00on par
Epinal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sedan ↓

Epinal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sedan or draw
69%
Sedan or Epinal
76%
Draw or Epinal
56%

Winning margin

Sedan wins by 2+
23%
Epinal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sedan 1+ goals
80%
Sedan 2+ goals
48%
Sedan 3+ goals
22%
Epinal 1+ goals
74%
Epinal 2+ goals
38%
Epinal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sedan (draw refunded)
59%
Epinal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sedan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Epinal away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sedan attack 2.25 + Epinal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Epinal attack 1.67 + Sedan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sedan scores more
44%
level
24%
Epinal scores more
31%

Sedan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Sedan 2–1 Epinal

Sedan beat Epinal 2-1 in Coupe de France on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Louis-Dugauguez in Sedan.