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Sebeta Kenema vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
2 – 2
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
4/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema31%
×Draw29%
Welayta Dicha40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
1.00
Welayta Dicha
1.17

Welayta Dicha creates 17% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
60%
Sebeta Kenema or Welayta Dicha
71%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
69%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
12%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
8%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
69%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
33%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
44%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
31%
level
29%
Welayta Dicha scores more
40%

Welayta Dicha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sebeta Kenema vs Welayta Dicha

Sebeta Kenema and Welayta Dicha drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.