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Sebeta Kenema vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
4/17/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema31%
×Draw29%
Sidama Bunna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
1.02
Sidama Bunna
1.23

Sidama Bunna creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
59%
Sebeta Kenema or Sidama Bunna
71%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
69%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
64%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
27%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
8%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
71%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
35%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
43%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
31%
level
29%
Sidama Bunna scores more
41%

Sidama Bunna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sebeta Kenema vs Sidama Bunna

Sidama Bunna beat Sebeta Kenema 3-0 in Premier League on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.