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Sebeta Kenema vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
0 – 0
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
1/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema31%
×Draw31%
Hadiya Hosaena39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
0.92
Hadiya Hosaena
1.07

Hadiya Hosaena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
61%
Sebeta Kenema or Hadiya Hosaena
69%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
69%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
60%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
7%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
66%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
29%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
44%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
31%
level
31%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
39%

Hadiya Hosaena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sebeta Kenema 0–0 Hadiya Hosaena

Sebeta Kenema and Hadiya Hosaena drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Jimma Stadium in Jimma.