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Sebeta Kenema vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
0 – 0
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
2/17/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Sebeta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema30%
×Draw29%
Ethiopia Bunna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
0.98
Ethiopia Bunna
1.20

Ethiopia Bunna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
59%
Sebeta Kenema or Ethiopia Bunna
71%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
70%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
8%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
70%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
34%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
42%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
30%
level
29%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
41%

Ethiopia Bunna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sebeta Kenema 0–0 Ethiopia Bunna

Sebeta Kenema and Ethiopia Bunna drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 17, 2020.

The match was played at Sebeta Stadium in Sebeta.