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Ethiopia Bunna vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
0 – 0
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
10/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna46%
×Draw27%
Sebeta Kenema27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.39
Sebeta Kenema
0.99

Ethiopia Bunna creates 40% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
73%
Ethiopia Bunna or Sebeta Kenema
73%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
54%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
22%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
75%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
40%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
16%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
63%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
46%
level
27%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
27%

Ethiopia Bunna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Bunna 0–0 Sebeta Kenema

Ethiopia Bunna and Sebeta Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.