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Sebeta Kenema vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
1 – 4
Bahardar
Bahardar
1/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema27%
×Draw29%
Bahardar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
0.90
Bahardar
1.22

Bahardar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
57%
Sebeta Kenema or Bahardar
71%
Draw or Bahardar
73%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
9%
Bahardar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
59%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
6%
Bahardar 1+ goals
70%
Bahardar 2+ goals
34%
Bahardar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
39%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
27%
level
29%
Bahardar scores more
43%

Bahardar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sebeta Kenema 1–4 Bahardar

Bahardar beat Sebeta Kenema 4-1 in Premier League on January 19, 2021.

The match was played at Jimma Stadium in Jimma.