Sebeta Kenema 1–0 Arba Minch Kenema: Result & Stats

Sebeta Kenema

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arba Minch Kenema

6/30/2022

Premier League · Round 30Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema30%

×Draw30%

Arba Minch Kenema40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sebeta KenemaExpected goals in this matchArba Minch Kenema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.14

Sebeta Kenema

0.96

Arba Minch Kenema

1.14

Arba Minch Kenema creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 66 away

0.94

creates per match

1.00

1.28

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema

0.94

Arba Minch Kenema

1.00

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema

1.28

Arba Minch Kenema

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Arba Minch Kenema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw

60%

Sebeta Kenema or Arba Minch Kenema

70%

Draw or Arba Minch Kenema

70%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+

11%

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals

62%

Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals

25%

Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals

7%

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals

68%

Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals

32%

Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)

43%

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Arba Minch Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Arba Minch Kenema attack 1.00 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more

30%

level

30%

Arba Minch Kenema scores more

40%

Arba Minch Kenema at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff