Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Seattle Sounders vs San Diego Loyal — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders
FT
1 – 0
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
4/11/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Seattle Sounders59%
×Draw23%
San Diego Loyal18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders
1.77
San Diego Loyal
0.86

Seattle Sounders creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders
2.20
San Diego Loyal
1.33

allows per match

Seattle Sounders
0.40
San Diego Loyal
1.33

finishing

Seattle Sounders+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw
82%
Seattle Sounders or San Diego Loyal
77%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
41%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+
33%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals
83%
Seattle Sounders 2+ goals
53%
Seattle Sounders 3+ goals
26%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
58%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
21%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)
77%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 2.20 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

San Diego Loyal attack 1.33 + Seattle Sounders defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more
59%
level
23%
San Diego Loyal scores more
18%

Seattle Sounders at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Sounders vs San Diego Loyal

Seattle Sounders beat San Diego Loyal 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.