Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England Revolution

Seattle Sounders

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

New England Revolution

Nicolas Lodeiro 66'

Harry Shipp 65', 2'

Carles Gil 87' (pen)

Gustavo Bou 35'

Michael Mancienne 27'

8/10/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 29CenturyLink Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Seattle Sounders56%

×Draw22%

New England Revolution22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle SoundersExpected goals in this matchNew England Revolution

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.15

Seattle Sounders

1.96

New England Revolution

1.15

Seattle Sounders creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.97

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Seattle Sounders

1.97

New England Revolution

1.20

allows per match

Seattle Sounders

1.09

New England Revolution

1.95

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Seattle Sounders+0.12scores more

New England Revolution-0.07on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

New England Revolution →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw

78%

Seattle Sounders or New England Revolution

78%

Draw or New England Revolution

44%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

33%

New England Revolution wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

86%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

58%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

31%

New England Revolution 1+ goals

68%

New England Revolution 2+ goals

32%

New England Revolution 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

72%

New England Revolution (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 1.97 + New England Revolution defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.96

New England Revolution attack 1.20 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more

56%

level

22%

New England Revolution scores more

22%

Seattle Sounders at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Carles Gil

New England Revolution · M

8.5

Match Events

2'

Harry Shipp↳ Jordan Morris

27'

Michael Mancienne↳ Carles Gil

35'

Gustavo Bou↳ Edgar Castillo

46'

Andrew Farrell

54'

Michael Mancienne

59'

Joevin Jones← Nouhou Tolo

65'

Harry Shipp↳ Joevin Jones

66'

Nicolas Lodeiro↳ Jordan Morris

68'

Cristian Penilla← Edgar Castillo

72'

Handwalla Bwana← Harry Shipp

82'

Diego Fagundez← Brandon Bye

85'

Alexander Roldan← Jordan Morris

87'

Carles GilPenalty

89'

Kee Hee Kim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleNew

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots11

7Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots11

7On Target7

10Off Target3

4Blocked1

16Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

462Total Passes386

367Accurate Passes292

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Major League Soccer: Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England Revolution

Seattle Sounders and New England Revolution drew 3-3 in Major League Soccer on August 10, 2019.

Goals: Harry Shipp (2', 65'), Michael Mancienne (27'), Gustavo Bou (35'), Nicolas Lodeiro (66'), Carles Gil (87' pen).

Seattle Sounders controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at CenturyLink Field in Seattle.

Seattle Sounders vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Major League Soccer: Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England Revolution