Seattle Sounders 1–1 Columbus Crew: Result & Stats

Seattle Sounders

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Columbus Crew

R. Ruidíaz 79' (pen)

G. Zardes 33'

3/8/2020

Major League Soccer · Round 3CenturyLink Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Seattle Sounders47%

×Draw24%

Columbus Crew29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle SoundersExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.27

Seattle Sounders

1.70

Columbus Crew

1.27

Seattle Sounders creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 50 away

1.97

creates per match

1.44

1.09

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Seattle Sounders

1.97

Columbus Crew

1.44

allows per match

Seattle Sounders

1.09

Columbus Crew

1.43

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Seattle Sounders+0.12scores more

Columbus Crew+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw

71%

Seattle Sounders or Columbus Crew

76%

Draw or Columbus Crew

53%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

25%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

82%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

51%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

24%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

72%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

36%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

62%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 1.97 + Columbus Crew defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Columbus Crew attack 1.44 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more

47%

level

24%

Columbus Crew scores more

29%

Seattle Sounders at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Artur

Columbus Crew · M

8.1

Match Events

33'

G. Zardes↳ L. Díaz

36'

Joevin Jones

46'

C. Cadden← M. Valenzuela

59'

N. Tolo← M. Ibarra

66'

Luis Díaz

66'

D. Etienne← L. Díaz

69'

H. Shipp← G. Svensson

79'

R. RuidíazPenalty

80'

Y. Mokhtar← Pedro Santos

85'

João Paulo

85'

J. Dhillon← J. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleColumbus

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots5

10Corners1

10Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots5

3On Target3

8Off Target2

6Blocked0

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

548Total Passes437

455Accurate Passes353

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2