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Seattle Sounders III vs TSS Rovers — USL League Two 2018

Seattle Sounders III
Seattle Sounders III
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TSS Rovers
TSS Rovers
6/30/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 7Sunset Chevrolet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Seattle Sounders III72%
×Draw14%
TSS Rovers14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders III
3.48
TSS Rovers
1.55

Seattle Sounders III creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders III
2.75
TSS Rovers
1.60

allows per match

Seattle Sounders III
1.50
TSS Rovers
4.20

finishing

Seattle Sounders III+0.00on par
TSS Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders III ↓

TSS Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders III or draw
86%
Seattle Sounders III or TSS Rovers
86%
Draw or TSS Rovers
28%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders III wins by 2+
54%
TSS Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders III 1+ goals
97%
Seattle Sounders III 2+ goals
85%
Seattle Sounders III 3+ goals
65%
TSS Rovers 1+ goals
79%
TSS Rovers 2+ goals
46%
TSS Rovers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders III (draw refunded)
84%
TSS Rovers (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders III at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

TSS Rovers away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders III attack 2.75 + TSS Rovers defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.48

TSS Rovers attack 1.60 + Seattle Sounders III defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Seattle Sounders III scores more
72%
level
14%
TSS Rovers scores more
14%

Seattle Sounders III at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Seattle Sounders III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Seattle Sounders III 3–1 TSS Rovers

Seattle Sounders III beat TSS Rovers 3-1 in USL League Two on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Sunset Chevrolet Stadium.