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Seattle Sounders III vs Lane United — USL League Two 2018

Seattle Sounders III
Seattle Sounders III
FT
3 – 1
Lane United
Lane United
6/23/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Sunset Chevrolet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Seattle Sounders III56%
×Draw20%
Lane United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders III
2.30
Lane United
1.44

Seattle Sounders III creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 33 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders III
2.75
Lane United
1.39

allows per match

Seattle Sounders III
1.50
Lane United
1.85

finishing

Seattle Sounders III+0.00on par
Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders III ↓

Lane United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders III or draw
76%
Seattle Sounders III or Lane United
80%
Draw or Lane United
44%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders III wins by 2+
35%
Lane United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders III 1+ goals
90%
Seattle Sounders III 2+ goals
67%
Seattle Sounders III 3+ goals
40%
Lane United 1+ goals
76%
Lane United 2+ goals
42%
Lane United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders III (draw refunded)
71%
Lane United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders III at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders III attack 2.75 + Lane United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.30

Lane United attack 1.39 + Seattle Sounders III defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Seattle Sounders III scores more
56%
level
20%
Lane United scores more
24%

Seattle Sounders III at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Seattle Sounders III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Sounders III vs Lane United

Seattle Sounders III beat Lane United 3-1 in USL League Two on June 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sunset Chevrolet Stadium.