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Seattle Sounders II vs Real Monarchs — USL Championship 2018

Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
4/12/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders II44%
×Draw24%
Real Monarchs32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders II
1.67
Real Monarchs
1.39

Seattle Sounders II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 57 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders II
1.53
Real Monarchs
1.12

allows per match

Seattle Sounders II
1.65
Real Monarchs
1.81

finishing

Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders II ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders II or draw
68%
Seattle Sounders II or Real Monarchs
76%
Draw or Real Monarchs
56%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
23%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
81%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
50%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
23%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
75%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
40%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
58%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders II attack 1.53 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Seattle Sounders II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Seattle Sounders II scores more
44%
level
24%
Real Monarchs scores more
32%

Seattle Sounders II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Seattle Sounders II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Sounders II vs Real Monarchs

Real Monarchs beat Seattle Sounders II 3-1 in USL Championship on April 12, 2018.

The match was played at Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington).