Seattle Sounders II 0–1 Phoenix Rising

Seattle Sounders II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Phoenix Rising

9/16/2018

USL Championship · Round 48Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders II38%

×Draw24%

Phoenix Rising38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Sounders IIExpected goals in this matchPhoenix Rising

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

Seattle Sounders II

1.52

Phoenix Rising

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

1.53

creates per match

1.40

1.65

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Seattle Sounders II

1.53

Phoenix Rising

1.40

allows per match

Seattle Sounders II

1.65

Phoenix Rising

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders II ↓

Phoenix Rising →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders II or draw

62%

Seattle Sounders II or Phoenix Rising

76%

Draw or Phoenix Rising

62%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+

18%

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals

78%

Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals

45%

Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals

20%

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

78%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

45%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)

50%

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders II attack 1.53 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Seattle Sounders II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seattle Sounders II scores more

38%

level

24%

Phoenix Rising scores more

38%

Seattle Sounders II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Seattle Sounders II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff