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Seattle Sounders II vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
6/10/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders II43%
×Draw24%
OKC Energy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders II
1.65
OKC Energy
1.44

Seattle Sounders II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders II
1.53
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Seattle Sounders II
1.65
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders II ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders II or draw
66%
Seattle Sounders II or OKC Energy
76%
Draw or OKC Energy
57%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
22%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
81%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
49%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
23%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
76%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
42%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
56%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders II attack 1.53 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Seattle Sounders II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seattle Sounders II scores more
43%
level
24%
OKC Energy scores more
34%

Seattle Sounders II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Seattle Sounders II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Sounders II vs OKC Energy

Seattle Sounders II beat OKC Energy 2-1 in USL Championship on June 10, 2018.

The match was played at Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington).