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Seattle Sounders II vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
3/29/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders II38%
×Draw25%
Fresno FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders II
1.44
Fresno FC
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders II
1.53
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Seattle Sounders II
1.65
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders II ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders II or draw
63%
Seattle Sounders II or Fresno FC
75%
Draw or Fresno FC
62%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
18%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
76%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
42%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
18%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
75%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
41%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
51%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders II attack 1.53 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Seattle Sounders II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seattle Sounders II scores more
38%
level
25%
Fresno FC scores more
37%

Seattle Sounders II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Seattle Sounders II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Sounders II vs Fresno FC

Fresno FC beat Seattle Sounders II 1-0 in USL Championship on March 29, 2018.

The match was played at Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington).