Seattle Reign FC W 2–1 Kansas City W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kansas City W

6/11/2023

NWSL Women · Round 8Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W43%

×Draw27%

Kansas City W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchKansas City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.11

Seattle Reign FC W

1.38

Kansas City W

1.11

Seattle Reign FC W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 72 away

1.35

creates per match

1.19

1.04

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.35

Kansas City W

1.19

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.04

Kansas City W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Kansas City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

70%

Seattle Reign FC W or Kansas City W

73%

Draw or Kansas City W

57%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

20%

Kansas City W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

75%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

40%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

16%

Kansas City W 1+ goals

67%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

30%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

59%

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.35 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

43%

level

27%

Kansas City W scores more

30%

Seattle Reign FC W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff