Kansas City W 5–2 Seattle Reign FC W

Kansas City W

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Seattle Reign FC W

L. LaBonta 67' (pen)

T. Chawinga 47', 28'

V. DiBernardo 46'

Lauren Leal 45+2'

J. Huitema 41', 24'

6/9/2024

NWSL Women · Round 9CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kansas City W63%

×Draw20%

Seattle Reign FC W16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansas City WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.94

Kansas City W

2.08

Seattle Reign FC W

0.94

Kansas City W creates 121% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

2.52

creates per match

1.26

0.61

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Kansas City W

2.52

Seattle Reign FC W

1.26

allows per match

Kansas City W

0.61

Seattle Reign FC W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw

84%

Kansas City W or Seattle Reign FC W

80%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

37%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+

39%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals

87%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

61%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

34%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

61%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

24%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

80%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 2.52 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Kansas City W defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kansas City W scores more

63%

level

20%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

16%

Kansas City W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Huitema

Seattle Reign FC W · F

9.5

Match Events

24'

J. Huitema

28'

T. Chawinga↳ M. Cooper

41'

J. Huitema

45+2'

Lauren Leal↳ Bia Zaneratto

46'

V. DiBernardo← C. Lavogez

46'

Debinha← Bia Zaneratto

46'

V. DiBernardo↳ T. Chawinga

47'

T. Chawinga↳ E. Ball

56'

O. Van der Jagt← A. James-Turner

56'

Ji So-Yun← B. Balcer

57'

L. Barnes← P. McClernon

66'

Lauren Ivory

67'

L. LaBontaPenalty

73'

S. Ballisager Pedersen← Lauren Leal

75'

R. Brown← A. Cook

77'

E. Wheeler← H. Mace

79'

E. Adames← T. King

88'

D. Scott← L. LaBonta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KansasSeattle

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots13

6Corners5

11Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots13

7On Target7

4Off Target5

1Blocked1

9Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

448Total Passes426

338Accurate Passes313

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W

Kansas City W beat Seattle Reign FC W 5-2 in NWSL Women on June 9, 2024.

Goals: J. Huitema (24', 41'), T. Chawinga (28', 47'), Lauren Leal (45+2'), V. DiBernardo (46'), L. LaBonta (67' pen).

Kansas City W controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at CPKC Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W