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Seattle Reign FC W vs Houston Dash W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
Preview
23:00
Houston Dash W
Houston Dash W
8/30/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageLumen Field
Big match
50%
Seattle Reign FC W
model favours
50%27%23%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W50%
×Draw27%
Houston Dash W23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.40
Houston Dash W
0.85

Seattle Reign FC W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.09
Houston Dash W
0.79

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.91
Houston Dash W
1.71

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Houston Dash W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
77%
Seattle Reign FC W or Houston Dash W
73%
Draw or Houston Dash W
50%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
24%
Houston Dash W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
75%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
41%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
17%
Houston Dash W 1+ goals
57%
Houston Dash W 2+ goals
21%
Houston Dash W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
69%
Houston Dash W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.09 + Houston Dash W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Houston Dash W attack 0.79 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
50%
level
27%
Houston Dash W scores more
23%

Seattle Reign FC W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Seattle Reign FC W
Balanced
Houston Dash W
Balanced
46%PossessionBiggest gap49%
77%Pass accuracy80%
8.2Shots8.7
1.15xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Seattle Reign FC WHouston Dash W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Seattle Reign FC W
2
Draws
2
Houston Dash W
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 40%
0–01–10–12–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLLWL
W
DLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seattle Reign FC W face Houston Dash W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Seattle Reign FC W hosting Houston Dash W. Match starts August 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Seattle Reign FC W host Houston Dash W at Lumen Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.