Houston Dash W 1–0 Seattle Reign FC W

Houston Dash W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Seattle Reign FC W

Y. Nagasato 50'

9/22/2024

NWSL Women · Round 16Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Houston Dash W39%

×Draw25%

Seattle Reign FC W36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston Dash WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.37

Houston Dash W

1.44

Seattle Reign FC W

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

1.24

creates per match

1.26

1.48

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Houston Dash W

1.24

Seattle Reign FC W

1.26

allows per match

Houston Dash W

1.48

Seattle Reign FC W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw

64%

Houston Dash W or Seattle Reign FC W

75%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

61%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

18%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

76%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

42%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

18%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

75%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

40%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

52%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.24 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Houston Dash W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Houston Dash W scores more

39%

level

25%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

36%

Houston Dash W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Houston Dash W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

50'

59'

59'

60'

71'

S. Puntigam← Y. Nagasato

77'

Jaelin Howell

77'

J. Lester← S. Holmes

81'

Andressa Alves

85'

R. Gareis← Andressa Alves

86'

M. Mercado← J. Howell

90+8'

Jane Campbell

90+6'

Diana Ordoñez

90'

C. Soto← M. Alozie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HoustonSeattle

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots11

5Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target2

6Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

283Total Passes480

231Accurate Passes419

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2