Seattle Reign FC W 2–0 Houston Dash W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Houston Dash W

J. Huitema 68'

V. Latsko 53'

5/7/2023

NWSL Women · Round 5Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W46%

×Draw27%

Houston Dash W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Seattle Reign FC W

1.42

Houston Dash W

1.04

Seattle Reign FC W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 81 away

1.35

creates per match

1.04

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.35

Houston Dash W

1.04

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.04

Houston Dash W

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

72%

Seattle Reign FC W or Houston Dash W

73%

Draw or Houston Dash W

54%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

22%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

76%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

41%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

17%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

65%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

28%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

62%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.35 + Houston Dash W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Houston Dash W attack 1.04 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

46%

level

27%

Houston Dash W scores more

28%

Seattle Reign FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

V. Latsko

Seattle Reign FC W · M

8.0

Match Events

14'

Jordyn HuitemaGoal cancelled

53'

V. Latsko↳ M. Rapinoe

56'

B. Olivieri← C. Petersen

68'

J. Huitema↳ V. Latsko

72'

M. Alozie← E. Salmon

73'

K. Lind← A. Prisock

75'

N. Stanton← M. Rapinoe

83'

T. King← B. Balcer

89'

R. Brown← V. Latsko

89'

E. Bennett← J. Huitema

90+3'

Nikki Stanton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleHouston

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots7

1Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

385Total Passes534

273Accurate Passes415

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2