Seattle Reign FC W 0–0 Denver Summit W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Denver Summit W

4/5/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageOne Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W33%

×Draw28%

Denver Summit W38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchDenver Summit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.21

Seattle Reign FC W

1.11

Denver Summit W

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

1.09

creates per match

1.50

0.91

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.09

Denver Summit W

1.50

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.91

Denver Summit W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Denver Summit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Denver Summit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

62%

Seattle Reign FC W or Denver Summit W

72%

Draw or Denver Summit W

67%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

13%

Denver Summit W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

67%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

30%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

10%

Denver Summit W 1+ goals

70%

Denver Summit W 2+ goals

34%

Denver Summit W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

47%

Denver Summit W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

Denver Summit W away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.09 + Denver Summit W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Denver Summit W attack 1.50 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

33%

level

28%

Denver Summit W scores more

38%

Denver Summit W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Denver Summit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Reid

Denver Summit W · D

8.2

Match Events

60'

E. Regan← D. Lynch

60'

A. Oke← Y. McCormack

66'

S. Menti← J. Fishlock

66'

A. McCammon← A. James-Turner

77'

B. Ratcliffe← E. Adames

90+1'

N. Means← C. Pickett

90+1'

O. Thomas← M. Kossler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleDenver

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots18

2.01Expected Goals (xG)1.31

6Corners8

5Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots18

3On Target3

2Off Target7

7Blocked8

10Inside Box13

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

391Total Passes422

308Accurate Passes343

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls9

4Offsides1