Seattle Reign FC W 1–0 Angel City W: Result & Stats

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Angel City W

V. Latsko 87'

10/21/2023

NWSL Women · Play-offs - 1st RoundLumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W41%

×Draw29%

Angel City W30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.97

Seattle Reign FC W

1.18

Angel City W

0.97

Seattle Reign FC W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

0.90

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.00

Angel City W

1.04

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.90

Angel City W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

70%

Seattle Reign FC W or Angel City W

71%

Draw or Angel City W

59%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

17%

Angel City W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

69%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

33%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

12%

Angel City W 1+ goals

62%

Angel City W 2+ goals

25%

Angel City W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

58%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + Angel City W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Angel City W attack 1.04 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

41%

level

29%

Angel City W scores more

30%

Seattle Reign FC W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. McClernon

Seattle Reign FC W · D

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Sofia Huerta

64'

R. Lavelle← Quinn

69'

A. Thompson← C. Emslie

76'

Savannah McCaskill

79'

B. Balcer← J. Huitema

81'

J. Spencer← A. Riley

81'

J. Endo← S. Camberos

81'

C. Le Bihan← S. Leroux

87'

V. Latsko↳ P. McClernon

89'

K. Johnson← M. Hammond

90+4'

N. Stanton← S. Huerta

90+3'

O. Van der Jagt← M. Rapinoe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleAngel

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots4

2Corners3

7Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots4

5On Target0

4Off Target2

0Blocked2

5Inside Box3

4Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

385Total Passes489

278Accurate Passes395

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1