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Seattle Reign FC W vs Angel City W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Angel City W
Angel City W
5/4/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 2Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W55%
×Draw26%
Angel City W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.54
Angel City W
0.78

Seattle Reign FC W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.91
Angel City W
1.00

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.55
Angel City W
2.17

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Angel City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
81%
Seattle Reign FC W or Angel City W
74%
Draw or Angel City W
45%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
29%
Angel City W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
79%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
45%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
20%
Angel City W 1+ goals
54%
Angel City W 2+ goals
18%
Angel City W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
74%
Angel City W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 0.91 + Angel City W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.54

Angel City W attack 1.00 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
55%
level
26%
Angel City W scores more
19%

Seattle Reign FC W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup: Seattle Reign FC W 0–0 Angel City W

Seattle Reign FC W and Angel City W drew 0-0 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on May 4, 2023.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.