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Seahorses vs Central Valley Fuego II — USL League Two 2018

Seahorses
Seahorses
FT
2 – 0
Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
5/14/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Whittier College Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Seahorses67%
×Draw18%
Central Valley Fuego II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seahorses
2.54
Central Valley Fuego II
1.16

Seahorses creates 119% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 6 away

creates per match

Seahorses
1.76
Central Valley Fuego II
0.50

allows per match

Seahorses
1.82
Central Valley Fuego II
3.33

finishing

Seahorses+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seahorses ↓

Central Valley Fuego II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Seahorses or draw
84%
Seahorses or Central Valley Fuego II
82%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego II
33%

Winning margin

Seahorses wins by 2+
45%
Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Seahorses 1+ goals
92%
Seahorses 2+ goals
72%
Seahorses 3+ goals
46%
Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
69%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
32%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Seahorses (draw refunded)
81%
Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seahorses at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Central Valley Fuego II away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seahorses attack 1.76 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Central Valley Fuego II attack 0.50 + Seahorses defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Seahorses scores more
67%
level
18%
Central Valley Fuego II scores more
16%

Seahorses at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Seahorses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seahorses 2 – 0 Central Valley Fuego II

Seahorses beat Central Valley Fuego II 2-0 in USL League Two on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Whittier College Field in Whittier, California.