Seahorses 2–0 Capo II: Result & Stats

Seahorses

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Capo II

7/14/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 21Whittier College Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Seahorses31%

×Draw21%

Capo II48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SeahorsesExpected goals in this matchCapo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.08

Seahorses

1.65

Capo II

2.08

Capo II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

2.09

2.07

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Seahorses

1.67

Capo II

2.09

allows per match

Seahorses

2.07

Capo II

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seahorses+0.00on par

Capo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seahorses ↓

Capo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Seahorses or draw

52%

Seahorses or Capo II

79%

Draw or Capo II

69%

Winning margin

Seahorses wins by 2+

15%

Capo II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Seahorses 1+ goals

81%

Seahorses 2+ goals

49%

Seahorses 3+ goals

23%

Capo II 1+ goals

87%

Capo II 2+ goals

61%

Capo II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Seahorses (draw refunded)

39%

Capo II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seahorses at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Capo II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seahorses attack 1.67 + Capo II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Capo II attack 2.09 + Seahorses defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Seahorses scores more

31%

level

21%

Capo II scores more

48%

Capo II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Capo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff