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SE Juventude U17 vs Bahia U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

SE Juventude U17
SE Juventude U17
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Bahia U17
Bahia U17advanced
4/15/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SE Juventude U1743%
×Draw18%
Bahia U1739%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SE Juventude U17
2.83
Bahia U17
2.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

SE Juventude U17
4.67
Bahia U17
2.75

allows per match

SE Juventude U17
2.67
Bahia U17
1.00

finishing

SE Juventude U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 91Under: 991%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 88No: 1288%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SE Juventude U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

SE Juventude U17 or draw
61%
SE Juventude U17 or Bahia U17
82%
Draw or Bahia U17
57%

Winning margin

SE Juventude U17 wins by 2+
26%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SE Juventude U17 1+ goals
94%
SE Juventude U17 2+ goals
77%
SE Juventude U17 3+ goals
53%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
93%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
75%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

SE Juventude U17 (draw refunded)
52%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SE Juventude U17 at home — creates 4.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SE Juventude U17 attack 4.67 + Bahia U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Bahia U17 attack 2.75 + SE Juventude U17 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SE Juventude U17 scores more
43%
level
18%
Bahia U17 scores more
39%

SE Juventude U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SE Juventude U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: SE Juventude U17 2–5 Bahia U17

Bahia U17 beat SE Juventude U17 5-2 in Copa do Brasil U17 on April 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.