SDYuShOR 8 2–3 Kyzyl-Zhar: Result & Stats | Cup

SDYuShOR 8

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kyzyl-Zhar

A. Tolegenov 87'

A. Dadakhanov 50'

M. Skorykh 68'

T. Muldinov 53'

A. Kassym 15'

8/7/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 4Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SDYuShOR 850%

×Draw22%

Kyzyl-Zhar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SDYuShOR 8Expected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.38

SDYuShOR 8

1.90

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.38

SDYuShOR 8 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

2.50

creates per match

0.93

1.83

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

SDYuShOR 8

2.50

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.93

allows per match

SDYuShOR 8

1.83

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SDYuShOR 8 ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

SDYuShOR 8 or draw

72%

SDYuShOR 8 or Kyzyl-Zhar

78%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar

50%

Winning margin

SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+

28%

Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals

85%

SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals

56%

SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals

29%

Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals

75%

Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals

40%

Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)

64%

Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SDYuShOR 8 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SDYuShOR 8 attack 2.50 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 0.93 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

SDYuShOR 8 scores more

50%

level

22%

Kyzyl-Zhar scores more

28%

SDYuShOR 8 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SDYuShOR 8 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

32'

37'

50'

53'

68'

76'

E. Tazhimukanov← A. Kuanov

76'

N. Erlanuly← A. Tuleyev

81'

O. Saylibaev

81'

T. Muldinov

87'

A. Rayzo← A. Tolegenov

87'

N. Abish← O. Sailybayev

87'

A. Tolegenov

88'

K. Dzhanunts← A. Izmailov

SDYuShOR

Kyzyl-Zhar

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Tolegenov

Manager: D. Rikhard

76'▲E. Tazhimukanov←▼A. Kuanov

76'▲N. Erlanuly←▼A. Tuleyev

87'▲A. Rayzo←▼A. Tolegenov

87'▲N. Abish←▼O. Sailybayev

SDYuShOR 8 substitutes

TazhimukanovErlanulyRayzoAbishSaurbayMurzaykinKuryan

Manager: A. Karpovich

88'▲K. Dzhanunts←▼A. Izmailov

Kyzyl-Zhar substitutes

DzhanuntsPetrovSaenkoKovshovMelnichenko

Match Recap: SDYuShOR 8 vs Kyzyl-Zhar

Kyzyl-Zhar beat SDYuShOR 8 3-2 in Cup on August 7, 2021.

Goals: A. Kassym (15'), A. Dadakhanov (50'), T. Muldinov (53'), M. Skorykh (68'), A. Tolegenov (87').

The match was played at Stadion Karasay in Petropavlosvk.

SDYuShOR 8 vs Kyzyl-Zhar — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SDYuShOR 8 vs Kyzyl-Zhar