SDYuShOR 8 2–2 Atyrau: Result & Stats | 1. Division

SDYuShOR 8

FT

2 – 2

Atyrau

A. Marov 65'

E. Nabiev 45+1'

P. Grzelczak 59'

Z. Kairkenov 3'

9/30/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 6UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SDYuShOR 833%

×Draw21%

Atyrau46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SDYuShOR 8Expected goals in this matchAtyrau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.17

SDYuShOR 8

1.83

Atyrau

2.17

Atyrau creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

2.33

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

SDYuShOR 8

2.33

Atyrau

2.33

allows per match

SDYuShOR 8

2.00

Atyrau

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SDYuShOR 8 ↓

Atyrau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

SDYuShOR 8 or draw

54%

SDYuShOR 8 or Atyrau

79%

Draw or Atyrau

67%

Winning margin

SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+

17%

Atyrau wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals

84%

SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals

54%

SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals

28%

Atyrau 1+ goals

89%

Atyrau 2+ goals

64%

Atyrau 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)

42%

Atyrau (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SDYuShOR 8 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Atyrau away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SDYuShOR 8 attack 2.33 + Atyrau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Atyrau attack 2.33 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SDYuShOR 8 scores more

33%

level

21%

Atyrau scores more

46%

Atyrau at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Z. Kairkenov

45+1'

E. Nabiev

59'

P. Grzelczak

65'

A. Marov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff