SD Raiders 3–0 Nepean: Result & Stats

SD Raiders

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nepean

6/5/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 18Ernie Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SD Raiders53%

×Draw24%

Nepean23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD RaidersExpected goals in this matchNepean

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

SD Raiders

1.69

Nepean

1.02

SD Raiders creates 66% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

1.70

creates per match

0.67

1.37

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

SD Raiders

1.70

Nepean

0.67

allows per match

SD Raiders

1.37

Nepean

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Raiders+0.00on par

Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Raiders ↓

Nepean →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SD Raiders or draw

77%

SD Raiders or Nepean

76%

Draw or Nepean

47%

Winning margin

SD Raiders wins by 2+

29%

Nepean wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SD Raiders 1+ goals

82%

SD Raiders 2+ goals

50%

SD Raiders 3+ goals

24%

Nepean 1+ goals

64%

Nepean 2+ goals

27%

Nepean 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SD Raiders (draw refunded)

70%

Nepean (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Raiders at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.37 · 63 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Raiders attack 1.70 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nepean attack 0.67 + SD Raiders defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SD Raiders scores more

53%

level

24%

Nepean scores more

23%

SD Raiders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff